Nitrogen is by far the largest of the three primary nutrients required by plants for strong and heathy growth. Urea is the most widely used nitrogen fertilizer in the world, accounting for some 62% of global demand for this key nutrient.Key facts about the urea fertilizer market
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Key themes affecting the urea fertilizer market
The urea market has been deeply affected by the broader dynamics affecting the nitrogen industry: higher feedstock costs in key regions, and the resulting impact on prices. The geography of the impact is however considerably different: urea is not as significant a nitrogen fertilizer for example in Europe (where nitrates are preferred), and most producers in the Middle East experienced limited (if any) price pressure.
The unexpected retreat of China from export markets in Q4 2021 caused significant reasons for concern, balancing out the impact of emerging new capacity in India which would reduce significantly global imports.
While not in any sense “imminent”, urea demand faces a considerable threat in the long term given its carbon content. A full replacement is unlikely in key markets and appears implausible (notably China and India, jointly accounting for 47% of global demand), yet sharper dynamics could be observed in the United States and Europe (joint demand share: 12%). Technologies based on “circular” carbon from organic sources offer an alternative route – yet the pace and commercial success of such developments will remain a key variable to track.
| Key Urea indicators | ||||
| Baltic fob, $/t | China fob, $/t | US imports, ‘000t/y | China exports, ‘000t/y | |
| 2017 | 225 | 243 | 6126 | 4683 |
| 2018 | 261 | 295 | 5450 | 2453 |
| 2019 | 246 | 269 | 5320 | 4689 |
| 2020 | 226 | 269 | 4423 | 5540 |
| 2021 | 464 | 254 | 5357 | 4663 |
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