China’s explosive growth in corn importations, up more than 20 million tonnes last year, has made them the largest importer, nearly double the next largest importer. This has shocked the market, caused prices to skyrocket and shrunk exporters’ stocks. However, how long with they remain in the world market? History says these episodes are fleeting, but will it be different this time?Key facts about the corn and feed grains market
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Key themes affecting the Corn and Feed Grains market
Global meat consumption has trended upward significantly over recent decades, especially in developing economies, and this has boosted demand for animal feed.
The ethanol industry has also reshaped the corn market in the US and globally since 2005, with demand for corn in the US increasing drastically. The market is expected to change again as China plans to implement the E10 national mandate, whereby all gasoline must include 10% ethanol. The Chinese government has recently suspended the mandate, but China likely will gradually increase its domestic demand for ethanol. China is the second largest world producer of corn but already consumes almost all its production and so the expectation is that China will become a major importer of corn in the next few years.
| Annual Corn Exports 1,000 Tonnes (Sep to Aug marketing year) | ||||
| 2017/18 | 2018/19 | 2019/20 *forecast | 2020/21 *forecast | |
| US | 58.9 | 54.7 | 43.7 | 50.8 |
| Brazil | 27.7 | 35.9 | 36.6 | 39.7 |
| Argentina | 24.4 | 31.4 | 33.4 | 30.4 |
| Ukraine | 17.9 | 30.4 | 31.1 | 28.8 |
| Russia | 5.7 | 2.7 | 5.0 | 4.5 |
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