Africa energy review and outlook 2022-23: Turbulence on the road to recovery

Sub-Saharan Africa's energy sector remains subject to the turbulent push-pull of conflicting forces, despite renewed regional economic activity resulting from the end of COVID-19 restrictions. COVID-19-era debt is a weight on regional economic growth, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict looms large in the region. High commodity prices resulting from the conflict have been both an economic boon and a bane, depending on the country, and the conflict has also reminded investors and policymakers worldwide why energy security is important—which has supported energy investment across the region.

Although the region had a banner year for world-class frontier hydrocarbon discoveries, energy transition considerations remain a challenge to future upstream activity. The region is a leader in refined product consumption, but this also gives rise to supply concerns, including from the power sector, which increasingly has turned to liquid feedstocks to compensate for failures of grid power. Renewables, however, may increasingly fill some of these power supply gaps.

This cross-sector report represents a review of the energy sector progress that was made over the course of the past year and offers an outlook on the complexities and questions the region will face in the coming year. Insight was pulled from our macroeconomic, upstream energy, downstream, and power and renewables research divisions.

Download the full report now.

Authors:

Daniel Berkove, Senior Advisor, Strategic Energy Initiatives, S&P Global Commodity Insights, works with key public and private institutions to accelerate growth and development in Africa and East Mediterranean countries. As regional lead for energy advisory services and CERAWeek, Mr. Berkove specializes in the areas of national competitiveness, integrated resource planning, the nexus of energy sector and economic development, and corporate transformation.

Farrah Boularas, Director, Africa and Middle East Oil Markets, Midstream and Downstream Research, S&P Global Commodity Insights, is the research lead for oil refining and marketing for the Africa and Middle East regions.

Roderick Bruce, Research and Analysis Associate Director, PEPS, S&P Global Commodity Insights, specializes in forecasting and benchmarking aboveground risks in sub-Saharan Africa's upstream sector.

Justin Cochrane, Director for Upstream African Regional Research, S&P Global Commodity Insights, is responsible for the Angola, Congo, Namibia, South Africa and Zambia editorial and data content of GEPS.

Thea Fourie, Director, Africa Insights and Analysis, Economics and Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence is an economist based in the company's South African office. She is responsible for analyzing and forecasting economic developments for the Southern African region (South Africa, Angola, Mozambique, Zambia, and Namibia, among other countries).

Ismini Katsimpardi, Technical Research and Analysis Lead, S&P Global Commodity Insights is an expert in upstream asset valuation, complemented by extensive experience in upstream oil and gas operations, asset management, and strategy within an Oil and Gas operator.

Silvia Macri, Associate Director, Africa and Middle East Power and Renewables, S&P Global Commodity Insights is responsible for renewable and power market analysis in Africa and the Middle East, covering renewable power policy trends, business models, emerging renewable strategies, project activity, and competitive landscape, among other topics.

Posted on 28 February 2023

This article was published by S&P Global Commodity Insights and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.