A further, and more immediate, potential societal impact of the COVID-19 pandemic centres around the “lock down” measures and the often associated ‘track and trace’ initiatives to try to track and contain the number of infections.

Could this potentially lead to more regulatory control over people movement and mobility providers for medical tracking and potential restriction purposes?

Perhaps it could pose an even greater opportunity for selected technology giants looking to exploit further mobility opportunities?

Other technology companies might be keen to further push artificial intelligence (AI) camera based solutions utilizing light detection and ranging (LiDAR) sensors to enable surveillance tracking of social distancing compliance, possibly helping vehicle manufacturers to limit potential duty-of-care legal liability issues during the re-start of vehicle manufacturing operations.

Either way, this could present a whole new business opportunity for LiDAR sensors, which might help to cut costs and further the advances of autonomous vehicle (AV) technology.

MaaS challenges and its future

The previously booming Mobility as a Service (MaaS) sector – such as ride-hailing or car-sharing — is currently facing its first global crisis.

The initial impact has been devastating to say the least. Recent Lyft and Uber financial releases suggest trip requests were down by between 75% to 80% respectively. While it is not as bad as the impact on public transit at about 90% decline, it does highlight that the current ‘fear factor’ for MaaS is a major issue that could potentially derail the success story.

So far consumers around the world have been abstaining from MaaS apps and have been returning to the perceived safety of the personally owned car owing to the COVID-19 situation.

In our view it is unavoidable that the growing reliance on personally owned cars will continue for the short- to mid-term. Vehicle manufacturers will be keen to exploit this opportunity for perceived safety and cleanliness.

We can also expect the emergence of new solutions for vehicle interiors that fend off germs (especially for steering wheels, door handles, and high-grade air filters) as these will continue to amplify the safety of personally owned cars.

Ironically though, these solutions will also become the enablers for MaaS to come back with a new, clean, and safe image until the emergence of a COVID-19 vaccine that could re-energize the MaaS sector.

However, lately the only ray of light for the MaaS sector has been the growing success of food delivery and bicycle-sharing activities. Hence, the pursuit for the robo-taxi panacea – including for goods delivery – remains a high priority for MaaS providers.

Electrification technology on track for the pandemic

Even though the current oil price is in historically low territory, future mobility solutions remain perfectly suited for electrification despite the COVID-19 outbreak.

The pandemic raised fear of handling liquid fuel pumps to fill up internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. Even in times of exceptionally low oil prices most consumers are still likely to value safety.

This newfound fear could help to persuade drivers to switch from ICE vehicles to electric vehicles (EV). Drivers can safely ‘refuel’ their electric vehicle at home knowing that no strangers have handled the charger before them.

Of course, in the short term we do expect some initial setback to EV penetration (depending on geographic region and fuel-efficiency regulation) as the pandemic did increase indebted consumer levels, which challenge EV affordability. Further policy support such as ‘green’ scrappage schemes could be necessary to further address affordability of electric vehicles for the masses.

Overall, the COVID-19 pandemic has led to improved air quality, less traffic, and more active mobility. So gradually expect more consumers to put EVs on their shopping list in the mid-term by 2030.

Ironically, one of the beneficiaries of this trend could also include the automotive sector, as the COVID-19 pandemic also exposed the vulnerability of the world’s manufacturing supply chain.

As electric vehicles typically comprise of significantly fewer components compared with more complex ICE vehicles, it could help to simplify the supply chain.

Finally, another sector that appears to be affected by COVID-19 is the prospect of autonomous vehicles (AV) in the medium term.

Paradoxically, instead of AVs transporting people, the 2020 image of AVs are robot-shuttles carrying COVID-19 test samples and/or equipment within a hospital campus: smaller autonomous robots disinfecting offices and metro stations or contactless delivery of essential food supplies.

These new technology applications were highly visible in Wuhan and other major Chinese cities, where they facilitated people’s lives during the severe pandemic lockdown resulting in very low trust levels among the Chinese people.

Now that contactless delivery has become critical in times of social distancing, autonomous vehicles seem to have found a more immediate use case that could appeal to a larger business community, but which could delay the originally planned roll-out for AV passenger cars significantly.

Emerging Automotive Tech Trends

Over the next two decades, as three main key technologies converge, the global automotive industry is expected to shift significantly to autonomous driving, ride-hailing/car-sharing, and electromobility. Together, they have the ability to build the largest paradigm shift in the automotive industry's 130+ year history, affecting existing business models and disrupting conventional supply chains.

One of the automotive industry's most impactful and long-term developments is vehicle electrification. Alternative propulsion vehicles are joining OEM product portfolios in order for OEMs to comply with upcoming carbon dioxide regulations and regional emissions goals.

The automotive industry is moving away from the traditional powertrain, with the long-term aim of completely decarbonizing the vehicle parc.

Keen to find out the upcoming auto tech trends? Download our Top 10 Auto Tech Trends to Watch for in 2021 report now.

Download COVID-19’s real possible effects on the Auto/Mobility Industry full infographic