16 September 2020 Mr. William May
Some indices roll over after strong rallies, perhaps signalling a pause in the commodities rebound
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Browse Content
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16 September 2020 Mateusz Mynarski Dr. Marie Lechler
Our experts utilize novel data collection to track economics recovery (among other things) via high frequency signals from news articles
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15 September 2020 Keerti Rajan John Raines, Ph.D. Laurence Allan, Ph.D. Anna Boyd
What does it mean for geopolitical security when three key global players - the US, China and European Union (EU) - turn inwards to focus on...
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11 September 2020 Thea Fourie Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
While emergency financing from the IMF to cope with the direct and ancillary effects of COVID-19 are agreed to, what about additional supports...
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10 September 2020 Brian Lawson
Record Asian share sales and multiple bond issuance successes indicate that risk appetite remains strong despite US tech-sector correction.
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09 September 2020 Mr. William May
An overheating equity market corrected sharply last week but all commodities, save oil, were unaffected, marching higher
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03 September 2020 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) must select a shortlist of candidates to replace Ricardo Azevêdo. Who will be backed and what are their policy...
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02 September 2020 Mr. William May
Markets focus on the accommodative Fed rather than growing second waves of COVID-19
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01 September 2020 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 1.9% in July.
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01 September 2020
Germany gave more details of its Green Bond debut in September: media reports suggest this will be a 10-year benchmark for up to EUR6 billion....
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31 August 2020 Angus Lam
New banking policies at play for both Mainland China and India
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27 August 2020 Brian Lawson
How have financial markets been affected by the combination of expansionary fiscal policy and quantitative easing and divergent sectoral performance?...
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27 August 2020 Brian Lawson
Media reports claim Oman raised USD2 billion in one-year bridge financing, while five hybrid deals this week indicated a strong “duration bid”....
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26 August 2020 Mr. William May John Mothersole
Chinese stimulus, a softening US dollar and easing COVID-19 containment measures give buyers the green light to keep going
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24 August 2020 Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D. Ms. Sara Johnson, CBE
While it may be a little early to fully quantify the long-term economic impact of the pandemic, S&P Global estimates that by 2030 the level of...
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21 August 2020 Brian Lawson
The S+P 500 index reached an all-time high alongside recent IPOs displaying exceptionally strong performance.
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21 August 2020 Raj Badiani Laurence Allan, Ph.D.
new Brexit uncertainties are sounding on the risk radar, namely whether the 11-month transition period is sufficient to deliver an agreement...
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20 August 2020 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
Understand the risks shaping geopolitical stability in September from elections to trade summits and beyond.
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18 August 2020 Mr. William May
Bullish Chinese data early in the week was offset by rising COVID-19 restrictions, a breakdown in US stimulus negotiations and disappointing...
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14 August 2020 Brian Lawson
US investment grade supply during 2020 has reached USD1.336 trillion, beating the prior full-year record in under eight months.
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12 August 2020 Mr. William May
Volatility returns with commodities jumping
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07 August 2020 Brian Lawson
Ecuador’s bondholders overwhelmingly accepted its debt restructuring proposals while Argentina has agreed a marginally revised deal with key...
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05 August 2020 Mr. William May
Following a pause in the commodity price rebound last week, the MPI nudged higher, but sluggish demand growth will continue to be a drag
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03 August 2020 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 5.0% in June.
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30 July 2020 Brian Lawson
Despite seasonally-quieter conditions, a large Australia syndication and a Hong Kong bank AT1 deal have reconfirmed long-duration demand.
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30 July 2020 Thomas McCartin
The 11-week stretch of commodity price increases ends amid a diplomatic spat
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27 July 2020 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
Understand the risks shaping geopolitical stability in August from elections to debt restructuring and beyond.
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24 July 2020 Justin Valentino Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
Countries/territories for which our Country Risk scores have been changed significantly over the last quarter.
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23 July 2020 Brian Lawson
Both Argentina and Ecuador are facing problems to agree restructurings with their creditors, increasing the risk of “hard defaults”.
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23 July 2020 Karl Kuykendall
US Regional Economic Outlook: Northeast to take longest to return to pre-pandemic employment levels, South faces most acute downside risk given...
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22 July 2020 Mr. William May
Encouraging Chinese data and a softer dollar lifts commodity prices for an 11th consecutive week as policymakers weigh further stimulus
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22 July 2020 Mr. Daniel Kral, M.A.
Sweden has pursued a fundamentally different strategy in responding to the COVID-19 virus compared with other Western European countries. It...
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17 July 2020 Brian Lawson
A fourth emerging market borrower is now seeking hybrid debt, amidst multiple long and ultra-long dated issuance within the asset class.
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15 July 2020 Mr. William May
A tenth consecutive weekly gain in our Materials Price Index (MPI) leaves the MPI down just 9% in 2020 as capacity closures raise materials price...
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15 July 2020 Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D. Ms. Sara Johnson, CBE
Our global economics flash for July 2020. While the worst is probably behind us, the global recovery remains weak and subject to further downside...
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13 July 2020 Brian Lawson
In recent days, three emerging market banks sold debt, including an AT1 deal for Mexico’s Banorte, while China Bohai Bank raised equity.
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09 July 2020 Brian Lawson
Ecuador has agreed debt restructuring with around half its bondholders while Argentina has significantly narrowed the gap with its creditors
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08 July 2020 Mr. William May
A better than expected US jobs report and good June Purchasing Managers data offers cheer but growing COVID-19 case counts in the Americas presents...
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08 July 2020 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 4.1% in May
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06 July 2020 Johanna Marris
The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement came into force on 1 July, replacing the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement.
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25 June 2020 Asad Ali
Government-military relations in Pakistan deteriorate over COVID-19, increasing likelihood of PM being replaced or ruling coalition collapsing...
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25 June 2020 Diego Moya-Ocampos, LLB
Dominican Republic election likely despite COVID-19-virus spread; tourism and transport and energy infrastructure new government key priorities...
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25 June 2020 Brian Lawson
Heavy US equity issuance, including a USD14.8 billion placement by T-Mobile US, took 2020 US share placement volumes to over USD100 billion.
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24 June 2020 Mr. William May
COVID-19 cases rose more rapidly in certain areas of the US, India and Brazil last week spooking financial markets, but commodity prices continued...
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23 June 2020 Raj Badiani, BSc Econ MSc Econ
We had anticipated that the Bank of England would expand its bond-buying scheme by GBP100 billion (USD124 billion), but it was at the lower end...
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18 June 2020 Theo Acheampong, PhD
Investigations into AfDB president’s suspected misconduct indicates growing multilateral and bilateral creditor rivalry, and likely governance...
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18 June 2020 Brian Lawson
On 15 June, New Zealand syndicated NZD7 billion of 2024 debt, doubling its prior record in April: Belarus and Honduras also successfully sold...
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17 June 2020 Raj Badiani, BSc Econ MSc Econ Jan Gerhard
UK’s plan not to prolong post-Brexit transition makes interim arrangements initially more likely than finalised EU deal
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17 June 2020 Mr. William May
Commodity prices continue to surge on improved manufacturing demand and investor interest
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16 June 2020 Brian Lawson
During the last week, two borrowers – Africa Finance Corp and Helios Towers – successfully reopened the market for sub-Saharan African debt
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16 June 2020 Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D. Ms. Sara Johnson, CBE
Even with the beginnings of a recovery in place, the carnage from this pandemic and the lockdowns can only be described as horrific.
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12 June 2020 Brian Lawson
Ten European sovereign issuers successfully sold debt this week after the ECB expanded its PEPP program by EUR600 billion.
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10 June 2020 Mr. William May
Commodity prices surged higher on supply side disruptions and optimism over demand
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09 June 2020 Richard Jackson Nathalie Wlodarczyk, Ph.D. Karim El Assir Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
Geopolitics in a post-pandemic world – Scenarios for 2025
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04 June 2020 Braden Muhl
Few industries have avoided harm from the impact of COVID-19 and the resulting containment measures. Who is most impacted and who will grow in...
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04 June 2020 Brian Lawson
Hungary and Deutsche Bank completed successful Green Bond debuts this week, highlighting the ongoing long-term growth of ESG funding.
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03 June 2020 Mr. William May
Markets breathe a sigh of relief that President Trump's press conference did not contain even harsher actions against China
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01 June 2020 Ken Wattret
Following April’s additional liquidity provision, June’s policy announcement is likely to center on ramping up net asset purchases via the PEPP....
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01 June 2020 Karl Kuykendall
Our May US Regional forecast shows that every state will experience significant employment and GDP declines in the near term.
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29 May 2020 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
Monthly GDP Index plunged 11.3% in April
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29 May 2020 Paula Diosquez-Rice Carla Selman Alejandro DuranCarrete
Argentina failed to make a USD503-million payment of delayed interest on three bonds on the expiry of their grace periods, entering a technical...
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28 May 2020 Brian Lawson
European corporate high-grade supply in 2020 is 80% ahead of 2019 levels, while US bank issuance is over 40% higher.
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27 May 2020 Mr. William May
Commodity prices record another strong week on prospects for Chinese stimulus and phased re-openings in Europe, Japan and the US
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26 May 2020 Tom Jackson
Regional surveys of manufacturing activity showed signs of improvement in May after crashing to historic lows in April.
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22 May 2020 Brian Lawson
Argentina faces technical default on 22 May, Province of Buenos Aires triggered this on 14 May, and Digicel is also facing a Moody’s default...
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20 May 2020 Mr. William May
Economies reopening and supply-side issues drive another strong gain in commodities
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19 May 2020 Alexia Ash
A “bottom-up” approach is less volatile and more nuanced than a markets-led approach and results in the potential for investment opportunities...
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18 May 2020 Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D. Ms. Sara Johnson, CBE
Recovery in global economic output to pre-pandemic levels will take two to three years
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14 May 2020 Mr. William May
OPEC+ supply cuts and weaker US output lifts crude prices and the broader commodity complex
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14 May 2020 Brian Lawson
Grenada became the first IDA country to seek an agreed debt moratorium on its private-sector debt – but then met slated payments to avoid default...
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12 May 2020 Dr. Marie Lechler
COVID-19, armed conflicts and locust swarms will drive an increase in Sub-Saharan Africans facing a food crisis
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11 May 2020 Jeannine Cataldi
Construction in Americas, Middle East and Africa regions have been the hardest hit by issues related to the COVID-19 virus pandemic.
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08 May 2020 Brian Lawson
Alongside bond supply from Bahrain, Chile and a syndicated 15-year deal from Germany, this week has seen the completion of two perpetual capital...
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08 May 2020 Arlene Kish, M.A.
Canada's job market was devastated once again with a 1,993,800 nosedive in net employment, which was weaker than our expectations.
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08 May 2020 Brian Lawson
Primary equity activity has expanded including sizeable deals for Southwest Airlines, Reliance Industries and a substantial Chinese IPO.
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08 May 2020 Alexia Ash
Mining in Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Peru likely to face acute challenges in the wake of COVID-19
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06 May 2020 Mr. William May
Crude oil rises sharply, but markets are becoming nervous about a resumption in the US-China trade war
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06 May 2020 Gabrielle Ventura
The Lebanese government’s financial sector restructuring plan includes banking sector losses of at least 200% of forecast 2019 nominal GDP
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05 May 2020 Columb Strack Anton Alifandi
Growing piracy off Malay Peninsula likely to be exacerbated by economic effect of COVID-19-virus crisis
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01 May 2020 Brian Lawson
NAB has arranged an AUD3 billion underwritten share placement to offset COVID-19 impacts, setting a sector precedent for capital raising
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28 April 2020 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP fell 5.1% in March 2020.
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24 April 2020 Brian Lawson
Italy gained record demand of over EUR110 billion for a EUR16 billion syndicated package, and Spain EUR97 billion for EUR15 billion of 10-year...
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23 April 2020 Mr. William May
Optimism remains in markets despite extensions to lockdowns
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20 April 2020 Tom Jackson
Regional surveys of manufacturing activity established new series lows in April, obliterating the previous lows set in 2009.
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17 April 2020 Kristyna Alexova Aleksandra Maguire
Findings from our EPIC report help supply chain professionals drive more informed decisions about how to best operate in unprecedented times
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16 April 2020 Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D. Ms. Sara Johnson, CBE
What does recovery look like? Our economists provide their outlook
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16 April 2020 James Petretta
Analysis on the impact of COVID-19 on protest and riot risks globally
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16 April 2020 Brian Lawson
Latin American, Asian and junk-bond supply this week indicates improved bond market risk appetite, despite worsening debt sustainability
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15 April 2020 Mr. William May
Volatility falls and prices rise as markets begin to calm
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09 April 2020 Dr. Marie Lechler
Our COVID–19 Country Vulnerability Index ranks countries’ capacity to deal with new outbreaks as well as those expected in the coming weeks and...
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08 April 2020 Alyssa Grzelak
In total, across S&P Global’s 52 rated banking sectors, the outlook on our rating is Negative for 41 economies, an increase of 32 since the beginning...
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08 April 2020 Dr. Kari Pries, Ph.D. Cristina Arbelaez
Severe US recession to curtail remittances to Central American countries, worsening external balances and domestic recession risks
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08 April 2020 William May
Commodities plunged further, faster in another broad-based move lower
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06 April 2020 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
S&P Global looks ahead to the events shaping country risk in April 2020.
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01 April 2020 Alisa Strobel
Ethiopia’s Prime Minster calls for emergency budgetary support and debt relief for African countries for which COVID-19 will pose a significant...
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01 April 2020 Thomas McCartin
Collapsing demand continues to push commodity prices lower.
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01 April 2020 Karl Kuykendall
No state will be immune from employment and GDP declines this year given the sudden and deep economic shocks associated with the necessary containment...
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30 March 2020 Brian Lawson
While investment grade borrowers are rushing in record volume to capture liquidity, emerging market borrowers rely ever more on IMF support
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30 March 2020 Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D. Elisabeth Waelbroeck-Rocha, Ph.D.
Most economies won’t return to pre-pandemic levels of output for 2-3 years
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26 March 2020 Brian Lawson
Despite IMF/IBRD moves to ease official debt burdens, Ecuador has moved towards debt default: Argentina and African states also seeking relief...
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25 March 2020 William May
Manufacturing shuts down in Europe and the US as COVID-19 takes a hold
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20 March 2020 Brian Lawson
Despite large-scale fiscal and monetary intervention including major QE programs, investors are continuing the flight to cash.
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19 March 2020 William May
Energy prices tank as Western Europe begins social isolation in earnest
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18 March 2020 Sara L. Johnson, CBE Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D.
Disruptions to supply chains, demand, international trade flows, and travel, along with lockdowns and collapsing stock prices, resulting from...
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16 March 2020 Ken Matheny, Ph.D.
Sunday’s aggressive rate cut could be the “final” adjustment to the federal funds rate, as there is little appetite now within the Federal Reserve...
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16 March 2020 Thea Fourie Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
Saharan Africa (SSA) region is highly susceptible to ancillary effects from the COVID-19 virus outbreak
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13 March 2020 Brian Lawson
This week’s market developments are dominated by the breakdown of OPEC production discipline and the global expansion of COVID-19.
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13 March 2020 Shane Norton Scott Hazelton
S&P Global study shows US off highway equipment industry directly supports 480,000 jobs and 2.8 million total jobs, with 35 states at more than...
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11 March 2020 William May
Commodities rose slightly last week as the US Federal Reserve cut rates to offset the effects of the spreading COVID-19 outbreak
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11 March 2020 Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D. Ken Wattret Elisabeth Waelbroeck-Rocha, Ph.D. Chris Williamson
Expect a sharp reduction in near-term growth, followed by a slow recovery
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06 March 2020 Brian Lawson
Despite a mid-week rush of corporate bond supply, S&P Global views COVID-19 to have lasting and sizeable adverse potential market impacts
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04 March 2020 William May
Intensifying fears of the global impact of COVID-19 sparked a major sell-off in markets, which hit commodity prices once again last week
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03 March 2020 Ken Matheny, Ph.D.
Analysis from our Senior Economist Ken Matheny on today’s Federal Reserve rate cut
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03 March 2020
We recorded 78% more public mass shootings in 2019 than the preceding five-year average.
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27 February 2020 Gabrielle Ventura
On the precipice of crisis: What’s next for the Lebanese banking sector?
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26 February 2020 William May
Materials prices increase for second consecutive week; freight remains a weak spot.
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14 February 2020 Brian Lawson
Record Italy syndication and multiple hybrid deals highlight “risk-on” investor appetite.
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13 February 2020 Rajiv Biswas
2020 economic outlook for Malaysia clouded by coronavirus economic impact
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13 February 2020 Ludovico Carlino Firas Modad
Yemen-based Houthi movement has mounted 462 attacks against targets inside Saudi territory since 2015
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12 February 2020 Rajiv Biswas
The Asia-Pacific commercial aviation industry is being hit by a massive economic shockwave from the escalating novel coronavirus crisis sweeping...
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12 February 2020 William May
Chinese travel restrictions are disrupting manufacturing, driving expectations of a demand shock
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12 February 2020
Djibouti's weakening fiscal position indicates tax demands targeting logistics and telecoms, cancellation of European renewable energy contracts...
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07 February 2020 Brian Lawson
An active European block-deal calendar and India’s privatization program for 2020/21
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07 February 2020 Brian Lawson
This week’s debt highlights were Poland capturing five-year funding at negative yields and Ghana raising 40-year bonds
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05 February 2020 William May
The disruptive effects of the spreading coronavirus on the Chinese economy sends commodity prices down hard
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03 February 2020 Columb Strack
Islamic State activity in Iraq and Syria unaffected by Baghdadi's death, Turkish incursion, or US partial-withdrawal
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03 February 2020 Rajiv Biswas
Worries about the spread of Coronavirus leads to Shanghai Stock Exchange Index falling 8.2% by mid-morning on 3 February, with the Shenzhen Composite...
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30 January 2020 Brian Lawson
Within improving bond markets, this week’s market highlight was Greece’s 15-year syndicated sale
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30 January 2020
Concerns around the coronavirus are spreading. Our experts look at the economic and security impacts
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30 January 2020 Jack A. Kennedy
Despite government critic's protest call for anniversary of 2011 revolution, significant mobilisation in Egyptian cities unlikely
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30 January 2020 William May
Commodity markets, already slow over Lunar New Year, are being hit by worry over the impact of the coronavirus on Chinese demand
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29 January 2020 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.1% in December 2019.
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28 January 2020 Blanka Kolenikova
Czech president’s decision not to attend summit in China unlikely to alter foreign relations or affect investments
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24 January 2020 Ludovico Carlino
Failure by Prime Minister-designate to win confidence vote increases likelihood of new elections in Tunisia
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24 January 2020 Brian Lawson
Five sizeable emerging markets deals were sold successfully on 21 January, with Pemex particularly-successful.
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23 January 2020 Alisa Strobel
Zimbabwe has entered into a currency swap deal with China, however, the deal is unlikely to solve Zimbabwe's foreign-exchange crisis and suggests...
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23 January 2020 Rajiv Biswas
The economic consequences of the coronavirus could be extremely concerning for the Asia-Pacific region
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22 January 2020 Deepa Kumar
Disputes between India's central and state governments probably to increase given disagreement over citizenship law, taxation
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22 January 2020 Ken Matheny, Ph.D. Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
Our examines the impact of a longer than expected pause in the production of Boeing’s 737 MAX
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22 January 2020
Parliamentary debates over labour liberalisation bill likely to fuel periodic, large-scale protests in Indonesia’s major industrial cities
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22 January 2020 William May
Commodities powered higher last week on Asian restocking demand and a clearer trade outlook
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17 January 2020 Diego Moya-Ocampos, LLB Carlos Cardenas Carlos Caicedo Carla Selman
Iran-US conflict to disrupt Brazil-Iran trade, increase Venezuela sanctions risks, and potentially undermine Argentina’s relationship with IMF...
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16 January 2020 William Farmer
Al-Shabaab assault on airfield indicates broadening of target set to include military installations in Kenya and Somalia
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16 January 2020 Brian Lawson
After record Euro-issuance last week, markets remain highly-active with six sovereign syndicated bond deals: Saudi Aramco grew its IPO 15%
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15 January 2020 Carlos Caicedo
Brazil’s fiscal reform likely to lose momentum in 2020 given president’s lack of engagement with Congress
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14 January 2020 John Mothersole John Anton
What will the market look like in 2020 for metals?
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13 January 2020 Steven Frable
Economic studies ascribe a range of effects (positive and negative) to higher minimum wages. We take a close look as 26 states make adjustments....
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10 January 2020 Daniel Kral
The timing and nature of the decision are highly unusual, while the reasoning is not entirely clear.
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09 January 2020 Brian Lawson
A record USD3 billion sale by Israel along with successful sovereign debt sales by Slovenia, Ireland and Portugal.
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08 January 2020 William May
European gas prices plummet on pipeline deal, before US-Iran tensions boil over at the week's end
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08 January 2020 Tom Jackson
A trend of weaker population growth overall and a decline in natural population increase has negative implications for economic growth at both...
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07 January 2020 Asad Ali
Singapore's election likely in March 2020, followed by ruling party leadership transition, but policy continuity almost certain
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06 January 2020 Harumi Taguchi, M.A.
Stimulus package including supplemental budget likely to mitigate downside risks, boost support for Abe administration in Japan
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02 January 2020 Brian Lawson
Recent data shows Euro-denominated debt issuance at near-record levels, but IPO deal numbers fell roughly one-fifth in 2019.
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02 January 2020 Langelihle Malimela Ege Seckin Deepa Kumar Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
How will several political developments in selected emerging markets impact on capital flows such as private investment, bank lending, and trade....
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02 January 2020 William May
The six-week rally slowed last week as markets wait for direction in 2020
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31 December 2019 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.1% in November
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27 December 2019 Kari Pries, Ph.D.
Transport networks, small and medium-sized businesses in Guatemala face extortion demands from expanding range of criminal actors
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24 December 2019 William May
Less uncertainty on trade supports rebounding commodity prices
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24 December 2019 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
Kenyan MSMEs to benefit from reduced taxation in 2020 but capital constraints to limit private-sector performance
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23 December 2019 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
Ethiopia to finalize foreign investment framework for aviation, energy, and telecommunications, but banking excluded
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20 December 2019 David Li
Large-scale but peaceful protests likely in 2020 across Thailand because of opposition-candidate disqualification and economic slowdown
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19 December 2019 Petya Barzilska John Raines, Ph.D. David Li Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
As the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) Appellate Body (AB) ceases to function, around 88 trade disputes are very likely to remain unresolved....
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18 December 2019 William May
The US-China 'phase one’ trade deal' reduces tensions and improves the mood in markets
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17 December 2019 Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D.
What's coming in 2020? Global growth will expand at a rate of 2.5 percent in 2020 before edging up to 2.7% in 2021 and 2022.
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11 December 2019 William May
More positive data points help to propel prices to a third week of gains
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05 December 2019 Brian Lawson
In the first week after Thanksgiving, two borrowers raised perpetual debt and several others obtained longer-dated liabilities.
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04 December 2019 William May
Better news on manufacturing is providing some support for commodities.
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03 December 2019 Brian Lawson
ICMA’s AMIC conference on 27 November considered the EU’s efforts to establish an “Ecolabel” for environmentally-friendly investment vehicles. ...
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27 November 2019 William May
Commodity prices finally join other asset classes in increasing
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27 November 2019 Brian Lawson
This week’s clear highlight is China’s return to the dollar bond market with a substantially-oversubscribed four-tranche issue.
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27 November 2019 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.2% in October
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21 November 2019 William Farmer
New data protection law increases regulatory burden in Kenya's mobile money lending sector; more regulation likely
-
21 November 2019 David Deull
After drying out in 2018, turkey prices are set to soak up a little more gravy this Thanksgiving
-
20 November 2019 Petya Barzilska Dijedon Imeri
Western Balkan "mini-Schengen" initiative has potential to boost trade, but will be limited to agriculture and tourism
-
20 November 2019 William May
Despite positive wording coming from US-China trade talks commodity prices fell again last week
-
19 November 2019 Arthur Dhont
Colombian government likely to struggle to implement economic policies in 2020 because of social and legislative opposition
-
19 November 2019 Brian Lawson
Sweden’s central bank has followed the recent example set by Norway’s state pension fund in divesting assets deemed to have a high carbon footprint...
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19 November 2019 Thea Fourie Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
Over the past decade strong economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa was accompanied by resurgent commodity prices and growing demands for infrastructure...
-
15 November 2019 Dijedon Imeri
Dispute over Taranto steelworks increases likelihood of nationalization but does not represent shift in Italy's industrial policy
-
15 November 2019 Brian Lawson
Since late August, the negative-yielding debt stock fell USD5 trillion to USD12 trillion with France’s 10 year OAT now giving a positive yield...
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13 November 2019 James Bohnaker
Retailers have good reason to be optimistic about the upcoming holiday shopping season, but not without a hint of caution
-
13 November 2019 William May
Optimism that tariffs might be selectively reduced lifted commodity prices mid-week before falling flat
-
13 November 2019
Opposition protests to escalate before Djibouti’s 2020-21 elections, with presidential succession and boundary disputes being notable triggers...
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13 November 2019 Diego Iscaro
Greece has unveiled an asset protection scheme aimed at helping banks to lower their non-performing loan (NPL) ratio, which is the highest in...
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08 November 2019 Brian Lawson
China raised 12- and 20-year funding in its first Euro-deal since 2004. Brazil sold 10-and 31-year dollar debt at its second-lowest cost to date....
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06 November 2019 Rajiv Biswas
Rajiv Biswas, our Asia Pacific Chief Economist, provides his comments on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership deal which will create...
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06 November 2019 William May
A PMI surprise, a Fed rate cut, and trade optimism failed to buoy commodity markets
-
05 November 2019 Ludovico Carlino Ege Seckin Columb Strack
Baghdadi's death unlikely to significantly reduce capabilities of Islamic State-aligned localized jihadist factions in Syria and Iraq
-
04 November 2019 Jordan Anderson Jihane Boudiaf Jack A. Kennedy
Ethiopia, Egypt, Sudan likely to resume talks over Nile dam dispute; escalation to military action highly unlikely
-
01 November 2019 Brian Lawson
Debt markets eased only modestly after the first-round Peronist victory in Argentina’s elections but Lebanon is attracting growing adverse focus....
-
01 November 2019 Dijedon Imeri
Umbria regional elections to bolster Italy’s Lega-led opposition and undermine cohesion of national government
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30 October 2019 Thomas McCartin
Markets have taken on a bearish view of the near future due to trade policy uncertainty.
-
28 October 2019 David Deull
We are forecasting Americans to spend a total of $2.7 billion on Halloween candy in 2019, the most yet
-
28 October 2019 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.3% in September
-
28 October 2019 Blanka Kolenikova
Hungarian opposition's municipal election gains bolster hopes for 2022 general poll, but Fidesz government remains stable
-
25 October 2019 Brian Lawson
While Barbados appears to have reached agreement with international creditors, Lebanese yields indicate increasing growing debt-sustainability...
-
25 October 2019 Sara L. Johnson, CBE Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D.
The October Global Economic Forecast Flash from Chief Economist Nariman Behravesh and Sara Johnson, Executive Director, Global Economics
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24 October 2019 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
EU proposals to establish development bank targeting sub-Saharan Africa likely to advance slowly given significant disagreements
-
23 October 2019 William May
The on-going slow-down in Chinese industrial activity continues to check raw material prices
-
23 October 2019 Sharon Fisher
While demographic challenges are daunting, some countries are better positioned than others to live with shrinking populations.
-
21 October 2019 Rajiv Biswas
Rajiv Biswas, Asia Pacific Chief Economist at S&P Global, provides his comments on BOK’s decision to cut the policy rate
-
21 October 2019 Brian Lawson
A post-crisis record CMBS sale, the first sub-1% corporate perpetual, and a large Italian project bond all indicate healthy risk appetite
-
16 October 2019 William May
Optimism over a possible US-China trade deal was not enough to keep commodity prices from falling
-
11 October 2019 Brian Lawson
Italian power firm Enel will stop issuing Green Bonds, in favor of sustainable debt, while Sweden and Italy are preparing Green Bond debuts.
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11 October 2019 Diego Moya-Ocampos, LLB
Peruvian president's move to constitutionally shut down Congress likely to trigger political standoff, delaying investments and projects
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10 October 2019 Carla Selman
Chilean Supreme Court order to re-assess mining project signals legal uncertainties and likely delays for large-scale developments
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10 October 2019 William Farmer
Kenya's proposed budget cut likely to target public-sector wage bill, increasing likelihood of strikes
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07 October 2019 Brian Lawson
Highlights this week include Greek corporate issuance and record-low yields for auctions of five and ten-year Italian government debt.
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02 October 2019 William May
Energy prices retrace lower whilst trade issues and politics cast a long shadow of uncertainty
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02 October 2019 William May
Energy prices retrace lower whilst trade issues and politics cast a long shadow of uncertainty
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02 October 2019 Venla Sipilä-Rosen
Having given up earlier plans to issue a Eurobond this year Belarus remains financially fragile.
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27 September 2019 Brian Lawson
Emerging market sovereign supply has revived strongly with sovereign issuance by South Africa, Abu Dhabi, Bahrain, Ecuador and Uruguay this week....
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26 September 2019 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.3% in August.
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26 September 2019 Arthur Dhont
Constitutional Court ruling denies province-wide anti-mining referendum in Azuay, Ecuador, reducing likelihood of mining prohibition
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25 September 2019 William May
A second Fed rate cut supports growth while oil volatility hits commodity prices
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24 September 2019 Jack A. Kennedy
Inconclusive Israeli parliamentary election increases likelihood of unity government being formed; shifts in security policy unlikely
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20 September 2019 Brian Lawson
Following last week’s ECB easing, European markets have shown strong demand, absorbing an impressive corporate and financial-sector calendar....
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18 September 2019 William May
Easing trade tensions and policy stimulus in Europe lifts prices
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17 September 2019 Chris Suckling, Ph.D. Alisa Strobel
Ethiopia's new economic program to strengthen investor protections but foreign-exchange scarcity will persist, limiting investment inflows.
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17 September 2019 Timo Klein
Understanding the factors that have likely led to a technical recession in Germany around mid-2019 is key to assessing the outlook in the months...
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13 September 2019 Ken Wattret
Ken Wattret, Chief European Economist, provides his initial thoughts on economic outlook following the European Central Bank meeting
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13 September 2019 Arlene Kish
The Bank believes that “the current degree of monetary policy stimulus remains appropriate.”
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13 September 2019 William May
A flurry of good news eases tensions but commodity prices resist the risk-on mood
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13 September 2019 Brian Lawson
Berkshire Hathaway sold a record JPY430 billion global yen issue: 2019 Samurai supply already has surpassed the prior annual peak.
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12 September 2019 Paula Diosquez-Rice Carla Selman Brian Lawson
Spend 30 minutes with our economics and country risk experts as we look at what's unfolding in Argentina.
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12 September 2019 Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D.
A look at the global economic outlook from our Chief Economist, Nariman Behravesh
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11 September 2019 James Bohnaker David Deull
Tight labor markets are continuing to boost wages across income groups, while consumer price inflation has moderated relative to 2018
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11 September 2019
Jamaica’s economic management has improved greatly during the three-year Stand-by Arrangement (SBA) with the International Monetary Fund, which...
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11 September 2019 Amanda Eglinton
LME nickel price will move moderately lower over the near term once the short covering is completed
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06 September 2019 Brian Lawson
Markets have been highly active after Labor Day: a record 21 US high grade deals were launched on 3 September, bolstered by poor US PMI data....
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06 September 2019 Carlos Caicedo
Brazilian Senate's finalisation of pension reform with slight modifications is very likely, implementation to help reduce fiscal deficit
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05 September 2019 Theo Acheampong, Ph.D.
New Nigerian cabinet's composition indicates government unlikely to reduce power-sector liquidity shortages and energy industry corruption
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04 September 2019 Michael Ryan
Risk to the corporate debt market is not systemic and remains contained when examined in aggregate, with concerns limited to certain sub-industries...
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04 September 2019 William May
Trade tensions ease but commodities continue to struggle
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03 September 2019 Brian Lawson
Argentina plans “voluntary reprofiling” of its international debt including IMF borrowings and enforced payment delay on domestic obligations...
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29 August 2019 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.4% in July.
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28 August 2019 William May
Tariff hikes again lower expectations for demand
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23 August 2019 Brian Lawson
This week’s most notable development was Germany’s undersubscribed 30-year EUR2 billion Bund auction: EUR824 million was sold at -0.11%.
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21 August 2019 William May
Uncertainty and fear of slowing aggregate demand send prices down again
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19 August 2019
Ethiopia's proposed off-grid electricity tariff reform and predictable network expansion plans likely to increase solar power investment
-
16 August 2019 Kari Pries, Ph.D.
Guatemala’s next president elected on pro-business platform, policy implementation likely to face delays in opposition-led Congress
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16 August 2019 Brian Lawson
Argentine securities faced exceptional volatility after its Primary elections indicated a first-round victory for the Peronist opposition.
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15 August 2019 Carla Selman
Opposition wins Argentine primaries making re-election of pro-business president highly unlikely, risk of state interventionism increases
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14 August 2019 William May
Commodity prices retreat, broadly led by an overdue correction in Iron ore
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12 August 2019 Karl Kuykendall
Atlanta, Dallas, Jacksonville, Nashville, Phoenix and Raleigh strike the right note with business costs/employment growth
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09 August 2019 Brian Lawson
Negative-yielding debt grew USD1 trillion in two days after the US expanded trade sanctions against China
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09 August 2019 Sian Jones Rajiv Biswas Joseph Hayes Chris Williamson Bernard Aw
Week Ahead Economic Preview
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07 August 2019 Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D.
Nariman Behravesh’s analysis of the devaluation of the renminbi and economic impact
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07 August 2019 William May
The prospect of a broader and more prolonged US-China trade issues unsettles markets.
-
06 August 2019
Central government to oversee Indian Kashmir's security following special autonomy abrogation, increasing likelihood of cross-border skirmishes...
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06 August 2019 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
Modelling non-damage business interruption caused by terrorism attacks
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02 August 2019 Brian Lawson
More outstanding debt, especially in Euros, now provides negative returns. Worldline’s new convertible sale set a record of -0.96%.
-
02 August 2019 Columb Strack
Fuel shortages resulting from Western sanctions on Syrian government likely indirectly benefit Al-Qaeda-linked jihadists in Idlib province
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02 August 2019 Diego Iscaro
There are indications that labor market conditions in France are tighter than suggested by the standard unemployment rate
-
01 August 2019 Carla Selman
IED attacks highlight new targets in Chile’s capital, including companies’ assets and executives, hastening passage of anti-terrorism law
-
01 August 2019 Ken Matheny, Ph.D.
Analysis from our US economics team on the July 31 FOMC rate decision and market reaction
-
31 July 2019 William May
Bearish sentiment returns on weak economic data
-
31 July 2019 Arthur Dhont
2020 budget proposal indicates changing Colombian government priorities; cuts planned in agriculture, energy and mining, transport.
-
29 July 2019 Brian Lawson
Despite pending key central bank meetings, Panama, Mexico, YPF Luz and various Italian borrowers benefited from receptive conditions
-
29 July 2019 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.3% in June.
-
29 July 2019 William May
No real direction in materials prices despite dovish tones from the Fed
-
19 July 2019 Jihane Boudiaf
Sudanese coup attempt unlikely to have been at advanced stage, but likely stalling transition negotiations motivate protests
-
19 July 2019 Brian Lawson
AB Inbev withdrew the USD9.8 billion sale of its Asian unit, citing “market conditions”, despite US stock indices reaching all-time highs.
-
18 July 2019 Langelihle Malimela
Reappointment of South African central bank governor significantly lowers risk of nationalization and mandate revision
-
17 July 2019
Mexican government's renegotiation of gas pipeline contracts highlights broader decline in legal certainty across multiple sectors
-
17 July 2019 William May
Prices retreat fractionally as markets enter a holding pattern in anticipation of the Fed’s next move.
-
16 July 2019 Ken Wattret
Deflation worries would return if the economy were hit by a major adverse shock.
-
15 July 2019 Alisa Strobel
Increase in spending as part of the new budget requires efforts to increase tax revenue as last year's tax revenue performance was below target....
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15 July 2019 Diego Moya-Ocampos, LLB Chris Suckling, Ph.D. Alexia Ash
Case study on how to value country risks in Mozambique and Peru
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12 July 2019 William Farmer
Sudanese leader seeks union with South Sudan, probably to increase revenue share from natural resources
-
12 July 2019 Brian Lawson
Turkey’s central bank governor was fired abruptly while Mexico’s Finance Minister resigned, publicly criticizing the AMLO administration.
-
11 July 2019 Petya Barzilska Jan Gerhard
Disagreement between the Council and Parliament over the nomination of new EU leaders indicates an increased likelihood of inter-institutional...
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10 July 2019 Deepa Kumar
Indian budget focuses on tariff support for domestic manufacturing: wider economic liberalization in India likely to proceed gradually
-
10 July 2019 William May
Iron ore hits another 5-year high whilst US ethylene surges.
-
08 July 2019
Insights from The National Association of Software Services Companies commissioned study on the impact their companies have on the US economy....
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03 July 2019 Dijedon Imeri
New center-left Danish government to focus on increased social spending and cutting greenhouse gas emissions
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03 July 2019 Brian Lawson
European bond markets have reached new record lows, while tighter EM spreads have encouraged Turkey and Argentine corporates to issue
-
03 July 2019 William May
Easing tensions between US-China counter fears of economic weakness for now
-
03 July 2019 Ludovico Carlino Ege Seckin
Severe aviation and marine risks in western Libya as LNA threatens retaliation for Turkish support to GNA.
-
28 June 2019 Brian Lawson
Emerging market and other higher-risk debt supply has continued unabated, including sales by YPF and subordinated Greek bank debt.
-
27 June 2019 Ludovico Carlino
Houthi threat to target international shipping indicates growing marine risks in the southern Yemeni Red Sea
-
26 June 2019 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
Monthly US GDP Index Rose 0.2% in May 2019
-
26 June 2019 William May
Geopolitics, supply issues and buoyed sentiment outweigh growth fears to lift commodity prices.
-
26 June 2019 Langelihle Malimela
Expulsion of senior ruling party figures elevates coup risk in Lesotho
-
25 June 2019 Carla Selman
Haitian president’s mention in court corruption report raises ousting chances, power vacuum over coming months highly likely
-
24 June 2019 Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D.
Our Chief Economist, Nariman Behravesh, looks at whats driving the current economic expansion in the US
-
21 June 2019 Martin Roberts
Armed robbery risk rises in Casamance region of Senegal as peace negotiations with militant factions stall
-
20 June 2019 Petya Barzilska Dijedon Imeri
EU's further postponement of accession negotiations with Albania, North Macedonia undermines judiciary, governance reforms, Western Balkans stability...
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19 June 2019 Brian Lawson
While this week’s supply has abated after last week’s rush, European bond markets have rallied sharply to new historic lows
-
19 June 2019 William May
Large moves in iron ore, lumber and other key commodities turned commodity prices up last week.
-
14 June 2019 William Farmer
If secessionists' responsibility claim for Cameroonian refinery fire is legitimate, it would represent notable capability increase
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14 June 2019 Brian Lawson
Five sovereign borrowers - Croatia, Indonesia, Italy, Lithuania and Spain - have issued this week with Peru, Serbia and Ukraine pending.
-
14 June 2019 Jan Gerhard
Delay to new framework agreement on Swiss-EU relations beyond October federal elections would risk causing disruption to trade.
-
13 June 2019
Further cancellation of official meeting between two Koreas indicates even leadership-level summits unlikely to reduce war risks.
-
12 June 2019 William May
Large oil inventory gain reinforces oversupply concerns in markets already suffering from poor demand outlook.
-
11 June 2019 Thea Fourie Langelihle Malimela Brian Lawson
Spend 30 minutes with our analysts to understand the political disagreement over RBSA's role and adverse economic developments
-
10 June 2019 Thomas McCartin
New tariff threat on Mexican imports hurt the chance for the USMCA’s ratification.
-
10 June 2019 Chris Williamson
Global economic growth slips to three year low amid gloomier outlook
-
07 June 2019 Ege Seckin
Turkish military operation in Iraq's Kurdish region against PKK unlikely to affect nearby cities or oil assets.
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