07 June 2019 Brian Lawson
Despite ongoing market volatility, plans for equity sales are reviving involving at least six significant transactions.
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06 June 2019 Carla Selman
Chilean government prepares national lithium policy, likely easing conditions for investment; opposition’s nationalization demands to delay implementation....
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06 June 2019 Theo Acheampong, Ph.D. Natznet Tesfay, B.A., M.Sc. Martin Roberts Jordan Anderson Chris Suckling, Ph.D. Anna Boyd
Local content, revenue mobilization and anti-corruption will continue to drive transitions and contract risk in Africa in the next 2 years.
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05 June 2019 William Farmer
Kenya's escalation of boundary dispute with Somalia increases likelihood of refugee returnees and travel disruption.
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03 June 2019 Ken Matheny, Ph.D.
We now expect the next adjustment to the Fed interest rate policy will occur mid-2020, later than our previous forecast of late-2019.
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03 June 2019 Brian Lawson
Zambian bond yields spiked late last week to a 20 percent spread over US Treasuries, double their margin in early 2019.
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31 May 2019 Jan Gerhard
EU elections alter political power dynamics at expense of center-right and center-left, increasing dependency on varying coalitions.
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31 May 2019 Brian Lawson
During May, equity markets have reversed while bond risk spreads have widened.
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30 May 2019 Ling-Wei Chung
Easing inflationary expectations and slower economic activities suggest the beginning of the Philippines’ monetary easing cycle.
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30 May 2019 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.2% in April.
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30 May 2019 Deepa Kumar
Majority win for Indian PM to permit strong central government, growth-boosting measures and flagship schemes to be prioritized.
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29 May 2019 William May
Inventories and demand concerns resulted in Brent's worst week in 2019
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28 May 2019 Brian Lawson
Six major green bond sales and five emerging market sovereign issues confirm continued risk appetite.
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28 May 2019 Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D.
The risk from government and nonfinancial corporate debt remains modest, however, if the global economy falters, or interest rates rise significantly...
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24 May 2019 Andrew Birch
The lira is on the precipice of a crisis, undermined by falling reserves and declining institutional integrity.
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24 May 2019 Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch Asad Ali
Pakistan secures additional financing from the IMF but risks or program slippages and loan disbursement delays are significant.
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23 May 2019 William Farmer
Protectionists likely to stymie Nigeria's implementation of African Continental Free Trade Agreement even if government signs up
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22 May 2019 Asad Ali
Change of Sri Lankan president likely in December 2019 election given adverse fallout from Easter attacks.
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22 May 2019 Carla Selman
Announced Kirchnerist ticket for Argentina’s elections appeals to moderate Peronists; divisions and rearrangement in ruling coalition likely....
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21 May 2019 Alex Barnes
Incumbent coalition's surprise victory in Australian election increases likelihood of SME tax cuts and new mining licenses.
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21 May 2019 Sara L. Johnson, CBE Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D.
Growing political and policy threats mean any rebound in global growth could be ephemeral.
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17 May 2019 Rafael Amiel, Ph.D. Carlos Caicedo Brian Lawson
Spend 30 minutes with our analysts to understand whats happening in the three largest economies in Latin America
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16 May 2019 Jordan Anderson
Ugandan opposition co-operation agreement increases risk of disruptive protests, indicates growing likelihood of contested election in 2021.
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16 May 2019 Brian Lawson
Emerging market debt remaining receptive; market sentiment to be tested by US-China trade dispute and soft initial Uber share price performance...
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15 May 2019 William May
Breakdown of trade negotiations pours cold water on commodity prices.
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15 May 2019 Shane Norton
We expect travel to rise by 1.5 million from last year as 42.8 million travelers are expected to take to the rails, roads and skies during the...
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15 May 2019 Carlos Caicedo
Argentine president’s plan of national unity rejected by opposition, election uncertainty continues to be key risk driver.
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15 May 2019 Jack Kennedy
Implementation of ceasefire conditions reduces immediate likelihood of resumed escalation between Israel and Gazan militant groups.
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13 May 2019 Brian Lawson
Threats of increased US tariffs on China, Hong Kong’s debut Green bond and long-dated Eurozone supply.
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10 May 2019 James Bohnaker
The decade-long spurt for US tourism is fizzling. Solid domestic demand being offset by fewer foreign arrivals, due to slowing global growth...
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09 May 2019 William May
Mixed data drains optimism from commodities
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08 May 2019 Sara L. Johnson, CBE Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D.
Global monetary policy actions and resulting economic impact around the world
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08 May 2019
Consensus Economics names S&P Global best forecasters for Colombia and Malaysia in 2018
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07 May 2019
Lebanon’s 2019 draft budget unlikely to reduce fiscal deficit significantly; recurring protests over public-sector cuts likely.
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07 May 2019 Langelihle Malimela
Ruling ANC divided ahead of pivotal South African election
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03 May 2019 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
Monthly GDP Index rose 0.1% in March 2019
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03 May 2019 Brian Lawson
This week’s headlines are about future supply, of which sovereign deals by Kenya and Oman represent important debt-sustainability tests.
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02 May 2019
Chadian crackdown on civil society and internet restrictions indicate president's insecurities but Sudan-style overthrow unlikely
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01 May 2019 Carla Selman
Forestry contractors in Chile's Araucanía region are increasingly targets of arson attacks by Mapuche indigenous extremists.
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30 April 2019 Petya Barzilska
Archaeological, environmental concerns and local protests in Greece likely to impede construction projects ahead of elections.
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30 April 2019 Camille Chavrier
Bulgaria’s supervisory framework is weaker than European Union’s standards, raising uncertainty over its near-term accession to the banking union...
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26 April 2019 Brian Lawson
Cyprus and Greece plan early market refinancing of official “rescue” borrowings while Italy will badly miss its EU-agreed budget goals
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24 April 2019 William May
A broad but shallow rise indicates caution still
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18 April 2019 Brian Lawson
IPO activity has been boosted by eight US flotations and sizeable deals from Swiss, Italian, Chinese and African issuers.
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18 April 2019 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP fell 0.5% in February.
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18 April 2019 Dijedon Imeri
Anti-government protests in Albania pose property damage risks but unlikely to topple government.
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17 April 2019 Arthur Dhont
Venezuelan migrant flows to Colombia to continue rising, increasing welfare outlays; risk of related protests remains moderate.
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16 April 2019 Kit Nicholl
Proposed referendum on privatization of Paris airports unlikely to be replicated across other projects.
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11 April 2019 Ken Matheny, Ph.D.
The proposed nominations of Stephen Moore and Herman Cain to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
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11 April 2019 Petya Barzilska Camille Chavrier Brian Lawson
Spend 30 minutes with our experts and understand what's happening in Bulgaria
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11 April 2019 Jack A. Kennedy
Outcome and implications from the election
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11 April 2019 Raj Badiani
Due to Brexit-related uncertainty, UK real GDP growth is projected to downshift-the risks remain overwhelmingly on the downside.
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10 April 2019 William May
Supply disruptions, geopolitical tension and positive economic data help to move commodities higher.
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09 April 2019 Carlos Caicedo
Opening Brazilian airline industry to foreign investment highly likely as Lower House approves government-sponsored bill.
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05 April 2019 Deepa Kumar
Indian Supreme Court ruling against RBI will weaken insolvency regime, potentially increasing government interference in corporate resolution....
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04 April 2019 Carlos Caicedo
Aftermath of mining disaster in Brazil's Minas Gerais impairs royalties and tax collection, non-payment risk rises.
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03 April 2019 Petya Barzilska
European Parliament passes copyright directive; increased regulatory burden for online platforms mitigated by implementation delays and low enforceability....
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03 April 2019 Carlos Cardenas
Mexico unlikely to control migration flows into the US, increasing risk of trade-related disruptions at US-Mexico border.
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03 April 2019
A struggling manufacturing sector continues to present a challenge for commodity markets
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02 April 2019 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.7% in January.
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02 April 2019 Venla Sipilä-Rosen
Strong domestic credit growth and solid export revenue inflows secured remarkably strong economic expansion in Georgia 2018, but some weakening...
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29 March 2019 Asad Ali
Presidential-election delay raises risk of violent protests in Kabul and northern Afghanistan; interim government increasingly likely.
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29 March 2019 Brian Lawson
Over USD10 trillion of debt now provides negative yields, versus USD5.7 billion early in 2018
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28 March 2019 Arthur Dhont
Rising rates of drug-related violence in Colombia’s Medellín heighten collateral injury risks to bystanders.
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27 March 2019 William May
Oil and chemicals prices dominate otherwise calm markets.
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27 March 2019 Alex Kokcharov
Ukraine’s presidential election very likely to see split vote leading to second round; conflicting policy announcements likely.
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25 March 2019 Paula Diosquez-Rice
Volatility returned to the currency market driven by the elevated inflation rate and the failed attempt to reduce the extreme monetary policy...
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22 March 2019 Brian Lawson
This week’s bond issuance is exceptional, with five emerging market sovereign deals and four bank AT1 perpetuals.
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20 March 2019 William May
Fundamentals rather than politics play on most commodities.
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20 March 2019 Martin Roberts
Gambian president sacks deputy, two senior ministers but presence of regional peacekeeping force mitigates civil war risk.
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19 March 2019 Carla Selman
Renewed social programs funding to help contain protest risks, but unlikely to improve Argentine president’s re-election prospects
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19 March 2019 Emily Crowley
Understand the impact of wage policy on price increases in 2019
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18 March 2019
The Trump Administration’s tariffs on US imports of iron, steel, and other metals, plus additional tariffs on goods from China, will dampen both...
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15 March 2019 Brian Lawson
Petrobras revives Latin American bond supply with USD3 billion long-dated success
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14 March 2019 Matthew Henman Deepa Kumar
Ambush underlines growing tempo of separatist violence in Indonesia’s Papua; threat remains limited in scope and capability.
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13 March 2019 William May
US jobs data and Chinese exports helped to weigh on global markets and sentiment
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13 March 2019 Kit Nicholl
Likely ad-hoc repatriation of Islamic State foreign fighters would strengthen jihadist networks in Europe.
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08 March 2019 Brian Lawson
Despite equity market strength, developed market equity funds show ongoing outflows
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06 March 2019 Martin Roberts
Incumbent's clear first-round victory in Senegalese presidential election reduces protest risk and boosts further infrastructure expansion.
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06 March 2019 William May John Anton
What does the Vale mine disaster mean for steel buyers?
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01 March 2019 Cristina Arbelaez Kari Pries
Despite the worsening economic and political outlook Nicaragua’s President Ortega is likely to remain in power until the next presidential elections...
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28 February 2019 Alex Kokcharov
Moldova’s parliamentary vote outcome indicates likelihood of a minority government or a new election.
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27 February 2019 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.2% in December.
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27 February 2019 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.1% in November.
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27 February 2019 Thomas McCartin William May
Positive sentiment offsets weak data keeping commodity prices relatively flat
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26 February 2019 Deepa Kumar Asad Ali
Indian airstrike in Pakistani territory increases risk of unintended military escalation, but full military confrontation unlikely
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26 February 2019 Jihane Boudiaf
Sudanese president's cabinet, governor reshuffle indicates shrinking support base, aimed at ensuring military's loyalty amid ongoing protests....
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26 February 2019 Carlos Caicedo
Latin American risks presentation at the March ISMA-OSAC conference
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24 February 2019 Brian Lawson
Three successful sovereign sales, further AT1 supply and corporate issuance all indicate strong demand for longer-duration debt
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20 February 2019 William May
Commodity prices retreated on disappointing macroeconomic data in light trading.
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15 February 2019 Tom Jackson
Due to local opposition, Amazon has decided not to pursue the New York City portion of its “HQ2” project.
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15 February 2019 Brian Lawson
Santander’s high-profile decision was based on balancing between shareholder and bondholder interests.
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15 February 2019 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
Ethiopia's proposed mining law changes indicate more competitive tax regime but cancellation of underperforming exploration contracts likely....
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14 February 2019 Dijedon Imeri
Statement on Trepça mining complex indicates renewed EU, international drive for comprehensive relationship agreement between Kosovo and Serbia....
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13 February 2019 William May
Vale dam accident sends iron ore market running scared as prices test $90 /t level.
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13 February 2019 Carlos Caicedo
Pro-government leaders to head Brazilian Congress; fractured legislature and resistance to austerity likely to dilute pension reform.
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08 February 2019
While bond markets continue looking receptive and the US IPO calendar is reviving, the latest EU PMIs point to tougher equity conditions
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07 February 2019 Columb Strack
The Islamic State’s territorial control has shrunk to a hand-full of small villages in the desert of eastern Syria, about 50 km2. We expect these...
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07 February 2019 Ken Wattret
Although it is not our base case, we assess the risk of a “technical” recession at around one in three. A severe recession remains unlikely...
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06 February 2019 Vaiva Seckute
Tools to raise additional budget revenues spooked the financial markets in Romania. A deeper dive into the Romanian economy shows that those...
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06 February 2019 William May
Better sentiment carried prices higher though markets showed significant volatility.
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06 February 2019 Carla Selman
Moderate Peronist faction to challenge Argentine president’s re-election, but likely to maintain pro-business agenda and IMF deal.
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05 February 2019 Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D.
Compared with the euphoric mood in Davos 2018, this year the delegates were more subdued and wary.
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01 February 2019
Greece’s EUR2.5 billion deal came alongside three other European SSA successes, gaining demand of EUR82 billion for EUR17.5 billion supply.
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31 January 2019 Alex Barnes
Overwhelming vote for autonomy in Mindanao signals eventual MILF demobilization, security stabilization.
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30 January 2019 Cristina Arbelaez Brian Lawson
Take 30 minutes with our experts and understand what's happening in Nicaragua
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30 January 2019 William May
Geopolitics, fundamentals and sentiment all played a part in limiting commodity markets last week.
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28 January 2019 Brian Lawson
Developments in both debt and equity markets almost entirely represent positive indicators, with demand extending to higher-risk perpetual debt....
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25 January 2019 Deepa Kumar
Indonesia's 2019 presidential election likely getting tighter; policy continuity expected
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24 January 2019 Diego Moya-Ocampos, LLB Carlos Cardenas
Further rank-and-file mutinies likely in Venezuela alongside anti-government protests in traditionally pro-government shanty towns.
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23 January 2019 Ludovico Carlino
Revived Islamic State likely to mount raids into Libya’s Tripolitania and Cyrenaica from bases in southern desert .
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23 January 2019 William May
Rumors from US-China trade negotiations hint at an easing trade war and improved sentiment
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22 January 2019 Asad Ali
Pakistani separatist groups likely to be increasingly active despite sustained decline in nationwide NSAG attacks since 2014 .
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18 January 2019 Thea Fourie
Longer-term growth prospects appear less upbeat as the South African government pursues more aggressive redistribution policies
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17 January 2019 William May
Optimism around US-China trade talks and a jump in oil send commodity prices higher
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17 January 2019 Sara L. Johnson, CBE Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D.
Policy mistakes, especially regarding trade, continue to be the biggest threats to global growth
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16 January 2019 Raj Badiani
Analysis on the political and economic implications of the rejection of the proposed Brexit deal
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15 January 2019 Columb Strack
Despite security improvements, residual elevated risk of collateral damage at Damascus Airport, mainly from Israeli airstrikes.
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11 January 2019 Theo Acheampong, Ph.D.
Increased Zambian minerals royalties indicate government focus on natural resource sector to boost fiscal revenues, anti-government protests...
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11 January 2019 Brian Lawson
In 2019’s first full week’s trading, diverse emerging market sales and heavy European sovereign supply dominated primary activity.
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10 January 2019 William May
Oil prices bounce in an oversold market, lifting the S&P Global Materials Price Index.
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10 January 2019 Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
The unemployment rate could be boosted by as much as 0.2 percentage point and payroll employment could be reduced by as much as 380,000.
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10 January 2019
Policy paralysis likely in run-up to Panama's May presidential election; pro-business frontrunners will promote FDI.
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09 January 2019 Dijedon Imeri
Anti-government protests increase risk of snap election but unlikely to produce change in Serbian government.
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04 January 2019 Brian Lawson
Weak PMIs have indicated manufacturing-sector slowdown in both China and the EU, hindering equity market recovery.
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03 January 2019 William May
Oil keeps the commodities rout going in an otherwise directionless market
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27 December 2018 William May
Higher US interest rates and turmoil in Washington kept stock markets uneasy and sent commodity prices lower last week.
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27 December 2018 Andrew Birch
Net portfolio investment inflows have returned, but will remain precarious through 2019. External financing remains a challenge.
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21 December 2018 Brian Lawson
Despite a favorable bondholder tender, uncertainties remain over USD6 billion of MexCAT project bonds. Venezuela faces initial acceleration push...
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21 December 2018 Raj Badiani
An S&P Global scenario predicts that the economic consequences of a no-deal Brexit would be damaging.
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20 December 2018
Kosovo’s government has decided to use extreme economic measures to direct world’s attention to its political grievances.
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20 December 2018 Deepa Kumar
BJP loses three Indian state elections; increased support for agriculture and MSMEs, greater RBI policy alignment likely.
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20 December 2018 William May
Continued softness in commodity prices illustrates demand concerns.
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19 December 2018 Carlos Caicedo
Growing military influence in Brazil's new government, but support for privatization likely on selective target non-strategic assets.
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17 December 2018 Vaiva Seckute
Prospects are bright for now but negative effects of high emigration and low fertility rates will weigh on growth especially in Latvia and Lithuania....
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14 December 2018 Brian Lawson
Unsurprisingly, this week’s calendar is seasonally light.
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14 December 2018
Death and injury, armed robbery risks increase in Panama's Colón province, despite police anti-gang operations.
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14 December 2018 Theo Acheampong, Ph.D. Thea Fourie
Zambian Constitutional Court ruling permits president to seek additional term amid ruling-party splits, non-payment risks likely.
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13 December 2018 William May
Oil bounces on OPEC supply agreement but recent momentum and trade tensions still take commodity prices lower.
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13 December 2018 Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D.
These top 10 economic risks, combined with heightened political uncertainty in many parts of the world, point to the increased vulnerability...
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12 December 2018 Diego Moya-Ocampos, LLB
Petroperú oil spills underline security and operational shortcomings amid local opposition in Peru.
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07 December 2018 Laurence Allan, Ph.D.
Regional election results in Andalucía likely to confirm challenges to Spain's main parties in 2019
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07 December 2018
High yield and non-callable fixed rate corporate debt have declined most
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06 December 2018 William May
After declining for most of the week, markets rally as positive headlines flow from the G20 summit
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05 December 2018
Vote against mining company highlights strained economy, increasing arbitrary business demands, and violent protest risks in Liberia.
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30 November 2018 Carla Selman
Haiti's opposition-promoted protests increase chances of government change over coming year; delays to legislative elections likely
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30 November 2018 Carlos Cardenas
Mexican mining draft law to increase environmental, social impact oversight over sector, but approval unlikely in 2018
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30 November 2018 Brian Lawson
Issuing banks have sold TLAC/MREL eligible and subordinated deals
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30 November 2018 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
Anti-corruption arrests indicate diminishing resistance within ruling party to reducing economic influence of Ethiopian state-directed, -owned...
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29 November 2018 William May
Demand concerns meant another bruising week for oil, with the MPI dropping again.
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28 November 2018 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.3% in October.
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27 November 2018 James Bohnaker
A roaring job market is the gift that keeps on giving in 2018.
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22 November 2018 William May
A number of bearish signals drove a broad-based decline in the MPI last week
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21 November 2018 Deepa Kumar
Reserve Bank of India meeting signals increased executive scrutiny of central bank policy, interference in other independent institutions likely....
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20 November 2018 Timo Klein
Temporary factors were responsible for much of the latest economic downturn
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20 November 2018 Ludovico Carlino
Revised UN plan for Libya unlikely to facilitate east-west rapprochement, maintaining the current status quo.
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19 November 2018 Kit Nicholl Andrew Birch
Croatia is nearing Schengen membership, benefiting EU ties while hardening the borders with its southeastern neighbors.
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16 November 2018 David Deull
Healthy supply to take a bite out of turkey prices
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16 November 2018 Alex Barnes
Bougainville mid-2019 independence referendum in Papua New Guinea to delay mining development, raise likelihood of landowner attacks
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16 November 2018 Jan Gerhard
Formal UK cabinet backing for draft EU Withdrawal Bill represents weak indicator of final parliamentary approval
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16 November 2018 Brian Lawson
Bond successes for Nigeria, Indonesia’s Italum and Gazprom and NLB/Kazatomprom equity opening premiums indicate stabilized primary markets
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15 November 2018 William May
US mid-term election results lift sentiment before trade concerns drain the cheer again
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15 November 2018 Jack A. Kennedy
Gaza ceasefire to hold but accelerate Israeli cabinet divisions and sustain high risk of renewed conflict.
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14 November 2018 Carlos Cardenas
Disagreement between Mexican president-elect and his party to delay control of banking fees, regulatory changes still likely
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13 November 2018 Tom Jackson
Amazon announced that its new second headquarters will be divided among locations in the New York City and Washington, DC, metro areas.
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13 November 2018 Diego Moya-Ocampos, LLB Brian Lawson
Despite political noise and adverse recent headlines our view of Peru continues to be positive
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09 November 2018 Carla Selman
IMF 'safeguard' unlikely to reduce Argentina's protest and strike risks; cargo and transport disruption, property damage likely
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09 November 2018 Brian Lawson
Mozambique progresses debt restructuring by agreeing to share gas revenues with creditors; gas production remains key to debt sustainability....
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08 November 2018 William May
Mixed messages on trade and lackluster data on global manufacturing activity continued to push commodity prices lower
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07 November 2018 Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch Deepa Kumar Angus Lam
Parliamentary elections in 2019 encourage government interference with RBI; policy reversals to increase India's external vulnerabilities.
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07 November 2018 Lindsay Newman, Ph.D. John Raines, Ph.D.
New US Congress to result in policy gridlock and executive action on tariffs, sanctions, and deregulation.
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02 November 2018 Brian Lawson
Significant privatizations represent an important indicator of market resilience, while having major impacts for the vendor countries.
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02 November 2018 Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch Asad Ali
Pakistan’s new government of Imran Khan reluctantly returns to the IMF after other efforts to ease its external financial pressures fail
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01 November 2018 Emily Crowley
The wage outlook for unskilled construction labor for each US geographic region
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01 November 2018 Ken Wattret
Why the euro has risen so much on a trade-weighted basis and why it matters
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01 November 2018 Asad Ali
Sri Lankan PM's removal triggers constitutional crisis; early parliamentary elections likely and protest risks increasing in Colombo.
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01 November 2018 William May
Markets tumble further despite attempts by Chinese policy makers to lift the mood
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31 October 2018 Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch Deepa Kumar Brian Lawson Angus Lam
our initial assessment of the enactment of Section 7 of the RBI Act and the likely policy implications
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30 October 2018 Carlos Caicedo
Brazil elects far-right president; policy direction and economic performance require details of new cabinet, fiscal adjustments.
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29 October 2018 David Deull
Halloween candy prices will likely lurch upward this year, but candy spending is not spooked
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28 October 2018 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.3% in September.
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26 October 2018 Brian Lawson
Ample equity market supply, sharp price cuts and outright withdrawals leave several important equity sales facing uncertain markets.
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25 October 2018 William May
Geopolitical issues dominate, driving significant volatility in currency and commodity prices.
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24 October 2018 Lindsay Newman, Ph.D. John Raines, Ph.D.
Our analysts look at three possible election outcomes and assess the policy implications.
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24 October 2018 Raj Badiani
Our stress scenario, using our Global Link Model, indicates a domestic recession but a smaller impact on the eurozone.
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22 October 2018 Alisa Strobel
Zimbabwe revises GDP data and includes informal sector for the first time while the new Finance Minister announces ambitious economic stabilization...
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19 October 2018 Brian Lawson
While major IPO postponements indicate worsening sentiment, Turkey’s market return and Pemex’s 10-year bond sale are clearly risk-positive.
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19 October 2018 Petya Barzilska
Bulgarian prosecutors likely to continue drive for corruption and organized crime convictions, increasing business disruption, non-payment risks....
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18 October 2018 William May
US Treasury yield move prompts largest global equity sell off since January.
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18 October 2018 Carla Selman
Argentine export tax burden mitigated by currency gains, but strikes disrupting cargo and port operations likely.
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18 October 2018 Verner Ayukegba
Electoral fraud accusations by Mozambique's opposition RENAMO unlikely to lead to return to civil war.
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16 October 2018 Timo Klein
The government’s shift towards a more expansionary fiscal policy remains limited in scope and overly focused on public consumption rather than...
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16 October 2018 Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D.
Ukraine, South Africa, Indonesia and India among key emerging markets vulnerable to currency crisis
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15 October 2018
As we edge closer to October’s decisive monetary policy meeting, stronger than expected inflation figures may have given the hawks the upper...
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12 October 2018 Langelihle Malimela
South African finance minister's replacement unlikely to change economic impact of pending budget or ratings downgrade risk.
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12 October 2018 Carlos Caicedo
Far-right candidate well-placed to win Brazil's presidential election in second round; support for austerity likely.
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11 October 2018 Thea Fourie Langelihle Malimela Joyce Silungwe Brian Lawson
A 30-minute expert commentary on the current political and economic landscape and the potential near-term implications for South Africa.
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11 October 2018 William May
Slower economic growth and rising bond yields suggest upcoming turbulence for commodity markets.
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11 October 2018 Jack A. Kennedy
Stalled Palestinian reconciliation increases likelihood of anti-Israel protests, elevating conflict risk after rocket and arson attacks.
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05 October 2018 William May
Uncertainty in oil markets pushed oil and chemicals up as the world awaits OPEC’s reaction to Iranian sanctions.
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04 October 2018 Jihane Boudiaf
Probable US Special Operations Forces' partial drawdowns likely to reignite jihadist attacks against sub-Saharan African security forces.
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03 October 2018 Deepa Kumar
Maldivian president-elect likely to release jailed opposition leaders and judges, balance India-China interests following transfer of power.
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27 September 2018 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP was essentially flat in August.
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27 September 2018 William May
Markets shrug off trade concerns but post-Florence fervor retreats drawing down the MPI.
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27 September 2018 Ama Egyaba Baidu Forson
Kenya's government has decided to manage its economy without access to nearly USD1 billion from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
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25 September 2018 Laurence Allan, Ph.D.
Spanish state-owned rail operator set to lose monopoly on domestic train services, signaling probability of labor strikes
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24 September 2018 Arthur Dhont
Heightened risk of homicide and property damage to affect mining in Colombia's Antioquia in one-year outlook.
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24 September 2018 Vaiva Seckute
Weak investments and rising imbalances might lead to a sudden stop to consumption driven boom as external risks are piling up.
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24 September 2018 Joyce Silungwe Chris Suckling, Ph.D. Ama Baidu-Forson
Kenya's revised tax measures indicate revenue shortfalls delaying infrastructure development; repeal of loan interest-rate cap unlikely.
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21 September 2018 Andrew Birch
The interest rate increase was welcome, but widespread reforms are needed to return the Turkish lira and markets to stability.
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20 September 2018 William May
Trade rumblings, weak Chinese FAI and Hurricane Florence hit the MPI.
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20 September 2018 David Li
Thailand's 2019 election unlikely to alter military influence, civilian government likely to promote infrastructure spending, tax collection....
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19 September 2018
Increased dovishness at the Riksbank has led to high FX volatility; as fears mount that the first rate hike will be delayed in 2019
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17 September 2018 Venla Sipilä-Rosen
Monetary reform progress and structural strengthening of the current account help increasing exchange rate and inflation risks.
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14 September 2018 Theo Acheampong, Ph.D. Langelihle Malimela
Zimbabwean Cabinet reshuffle, purge of ruling party gatekeepers indicate economic reforms, international re-engagement are key government priorities....
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14 September 2018 Lindsay Newman, Ph.D.
Correct forecast on Ethiopia leadership challenge.
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13 September 2018 Carlos Caicedo
Support for Brazil's far-right candidate increases slightly after stabbing; presidential run-off likely to involve two anti-establishment candidates....
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13 September 2018 William May
Threat of a further slew of tariffs on Chinese imports, weighs on MPI
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12 September 2018 Asad Ali
Further Taliban assaults on Afghan provincial cities likely but momentum towards peace talks also set to increase.
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12 September 2018 Carlos Caicedo Carla Selman
Argentina deepens austerity to secure IMF support and stabilize peso; doubts of government leadership undermine business confidence.
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06 September 2018 William May
For a second consecutive week, oil drives gains in an otherwise directionless week
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06 September 2018 Dijedon Imeri
Swedish general election to produce weak minority government, complicating policy-making and posing risk of currency sell-off.
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05 September 2018 Blanka Kolenikova
Local elections, public protests to determine future of Poland's judicial reforms; improved court efficiency is unlikely.
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31 August 2018 Alex Barnes
New Australian PM likely to lower energy prices; government disunity increases likelihood of opposition victory in 2019.
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30 August 2018 William May
Oil leads a broad-based jump in the MPI in a positive week for commodities
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30 August 2018 John Raines Carlos Cardenas
New trade agreement to redefine Mexico-US relationship; Canada faces retaliatory tariffs if it refuses to join.
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29 August 2018 Deepa Kumar
Presidential election nominees indicate Indonesia likely to encourage conservative Islamist policies; pro-foreign investment outlook unlikely...
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28 August 2018 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.4% in July.
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27 August 2018 Carla Selman Brian Lawson
A from-the field webcast looking at Argentina's political and economic trajectory
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23 August 2018 Jack A. Kennedy
Israel ceasefire with Hamas reduces likelihood of war, but a lasting peace settlement for Gaza is unlikely.
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23 August 2018 Thea Fourie Joyce Silungwe
Threat of expropriation arising from South Africa's land reform legislation likely to deter investment.
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23 August 2018 William May
MPI falls as the global economy is checked by an overload of uncertainty.
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22 August 2018 Firas Modad
Iran likely to turn to Russia, Turkey, and China to offset sanctions, not risk war over Hormuz.
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16 August 2018 William May
Major components produce minor gains but MPI still directionless.
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15 August 2018 Chul Woo Hong
Amid increasing trade tension with the United States, free-trade agreements with the EU and South Korea have expanded Canadian trade.
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14 August 2018 David Deull
E-commerce transforms the practice, timing, and technology of B2B and B2C markets
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13 August 2018 Camille Chavrier
Latvian banking sector likely will undergo significant financial, structural, and regulatory changes in the near-to-medium term.
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13 August 2018 William May
Freight, ferrous and rubber prop up MPI in a stagnant commodity market
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03 August 2018 Raj Badiani Dijedon Imeri
The reform process in Italy is likely to remain slow, and will be further delayed by recent political events.
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02 August 2018 William May
Despite macro data pointing to softer pricing, the MPI jumps w/w.
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02 August 2018 Verner Ayukegba
South Sudan's prolonged negotiations highlight unlikelihood of comprehensive peace deal, but oil production agreement likely.
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01 August 2018 Bryan Plamondon
The economy emerged from recession in Q1 and is expected to further strengthen
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27 July 2018 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP declined 0.2% in June.
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27 July 2018 Diego Moya-Ocampos, LLB
Cuba to expand hotel capacity in partnership with French and Spanish investors despite tightening US restrictions
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26 July 2018 Lindsay Newman, Ph.D.
Correct forecast on Yemen civil conflict escalation.
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26 July 2018 Cole Hassay
Recent data from China and the Eurozone and currency weakness vs. USD has negatively impacted the MPI.
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26 July 2018 James Bohnaker
The back-to-school retail shopping season is looking a touch better than last year, earning an expected grade of B+.
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25 July 2018 Yacine Rouimi Sharon Fisher
Western European wages and productivity growth has lagged that in Emerging Europe. Is the Phillips curve still valid?
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25 July 2018 Jihane Boudiaf
Mixed signals on incumbent’s candidacy in Algeria’s 2019 presidential election indicate government attempt to mitigate unrest risk.
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24 July 2018 David Li
Business environment to further deteriorate for US companies in China as White House announces additional tariffs
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23 July 2018 Deepa Kumar Angus Lam
Recent banking-sector developments will strengthen and consolidate troubled state banks and allow increased foreign investment
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23 July 2018 Ken Wattret
The European Central Bank monitors “super core” inflation alongside other metrics to determine the appropriate monetary policy stance.
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20 July 2018
Despite a broadly as expected first quarter, the GNP and modified GNI indicators point to a deterioration in the domestic economy.
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20 July 2018 Carlos Caicedo
Brazil's presidential race remains wide open, outsiders likely to capitalize on unpopularity of divided pro-business center-right groups.
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19 July 2018 Chris Suckling
Anti-corruption investigations targeting Sierra Leone's former government threaten cancellation of construction, energy contracts alongside legislative...
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19 July 2018 Cole Hassay
Trade tensions and a stronger US dollar weigh on non-ferrous, oil and bulks, but chemicals lift MPI
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18 July 2018 Columb Strack
Syrian government advance towards border with occupied Golan risks provoking major Israeli military response.
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16 July 2018
Despite the expected vote to maintain rates, there is growing evidence that Sweden will raise rates
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13 July 2018 Cole Hassay
Rallying oil prices lifted the commodity complex for the second consecutive week.
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13 July 2018 Deepa Kumar David Li
Reduced India-China tariffs will expand market for Indian pharmaceuticals and broaden Indian start-ups' access to venture capital.
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13 July 2018 Arthur Dhont
Tax incentives and planned reinstatement of investment treaties likely to improve Ecuador's business environment.
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12 July 2018 James Bohnaker
The impact of the Supreme Court's ruling on e-commerce retail sales tax
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12 July 2018 Ludovico Carlino
LNA’s bid to control Libyan national institutions increases risk of renewed fighting between western and eastern militias.
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09 July 2018 Cole Hassay
Strength in oil markets checked a two-week long retreat in commodity markets.
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05 July 2018
Cambodia’s ruling party tightens grip on power.
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03 July 2018 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
Probable forced removal of Kenya's deputy president indicated by anti-corruption investigation beginning in July, increasing legislative disruption....
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29 June 2018 Jihane Boudiaf
Umbrella jihadist group likely to exploit expanded reach across Sahel to attack security installations more frequently.
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29 June 2018 Asad Ali
Taliban factionalism renders meaningful negotiations unlikely despite Eid ceasefire in Afghanistan; conflict likely to continue unabated.
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28 June 2018 Cole Hassay
Last week provided further evidence for our range-bound outlook.
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27 June 2018 Kathleen Navin, CBE Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.5% in May.
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27 June 2018 Kit Nicholl Jan Gerhard
French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel met on 19 June to discuss EU reform ahead of the 28–29 June European Council...
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22 June 2018 Thea Fourie
South Africa has witnessed the biggest sell-off of local bonds by foreign investors on record.
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22 June 2018 Sharon Fisher
Poland’s 2017 retirement age reduction will damage public finances, raise the risk of poverty, and hurt an already tight labor market.
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22 June 2018 Arthur Dhont
Multi-party coalition likely to support Colombian president-elect, supporting fiscal reform but tempering hostility to FARC peace accord.
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21 June 2018 Jack A. Kennedy
Egyptian cabinet reshuffle reduces coup risks for president, focuses economic policy on subsidy reduction and privatization.
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21 June 2018 Cole Hassay
We have been seeing signs that the commodity price rally was running out of steam; last week, the MPI confirmed this as commodity prices pulled...
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20 June 2018 Blanka Kolenikova
Public consultation, domestic pressure to mitigate disagreements with EU over Poland's proposed constitutional review.
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19 June 2018 Francisco Tang Bustillos
After a six-year delay, Syria released national account data showing that the economy contracted by more than 50% in 2012-2016.
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18 June 2018 Angus Lam
Fast credit growth and loan restructuring raise credit risk in Bangladesh
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18 June 2018 Jordan Anderson
Burundian president likely to stand for re-election despite "pledge to step down", increasing coup risks beyond 2018.
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15 June 2018 Carla Selman
Argentina's government introducing reforms to improve judiciary's independence, but major advances unlikely over coming year.
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15 June 2018 Theo Acheampong, PhD
Zimbabwean president's victory in July election likely to see implementation of economic transformation agenda despite opposition protests.
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14 June 2018 Andrew Birch
To rescue the lira and rebuild confidence in monetary policy, the Turkish central bank has taken several aggressive actions.
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14 June 2018 Cole Hassay
Signs are emerging that the commodity price rally is running out of steam.
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13 June 2018 Raj Badiani Laurence Allan, Ph.D.
The change in government poses little threat to 2018 growth, but political and economic headwinds could erode the 2019 outlook.
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13 June 2018 Petya Barzilska
Drivers of potential fan violence at the Russia games include past animosities and political influences
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08 June 2018
Canadian government's purchase of pipeline project to polarize electorate, increasing odds of government change at 2019 election.
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08 June 2018 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
Probable corporate tax increases after 30 June and anti-corruption probe indicate Kenya's renewed commitment to fiscal consolidation.
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07 June 2018 Cole Hassay
Commodities rise again as chemicals continue to drive the index upward.
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07 June 2018 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
Energy budget discussions indicate Tanzania will renegotiate gas-to-electricity off-take agreements and prioritize renewables development.
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04 June 2018 Nazanin Soroush Meda Al Rowas David Li
Iran likely to increasingly rely on China as major trading partner to withstand strengthening US sanctions.
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04 June 2018 Carlos Caicedo
Bargaining for control of Brazil's regulatory agencies before incumbent government's term ends likely to undermine operating environment.
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01 June 2018 Lilit Gevorgyan, B.A., M.A., M.Sc. Alex Kokcharov
Russia likely to favor domestic contractors to implement its "National Projects" investment program to 2024.
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31 May 2018 Cole Hassay
The commodity complex continues to show strength, but prices may be approaching a peak.
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31 May 2018 Martin Roberts
Provincial leadership battles and changing approach on land redistribution make early South African general election unlikely.
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30 May 2018 Kathleen Navin Ben Herzon
Monthly GDP Index rises 0.3% in April 2018
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25 May 2018 Diego Moya-Ocampos, LLB
US sanctions on Venezuela highly likely following fraud allegations in presidential election.
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25 May 2018 Rajeevee Panditharatna Ron Whitfield
Major new petrochemical supplier and plastics manufacturing plants coming to the Appalachian region – how many more will follow?
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24 May 2018 Deepa Kumar
Malaysian coalition stability likely until by-election for premiership; GST repeal signals government intent to uphold election promises.
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23 May 2018 Cole Hassay
Stronger crude oil prices are starting to move downstream.
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